19/17 @455h
He is folding too much to 3b's (80%), so his call here means TT+ AQ+ or even JJ+ AK.
His flop lead is only overpairs.He may or may not 4b AA, KK pf.
Question is would you bluff rvr and how much trying him to fold TT-QQ most likely.

Hand History for Game 1577043101

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, April 25, 10:57:09 ET 2009
Table Earlywine (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: IseeYouNextTime ( $64.84 USD )
Seat 5: managetwa ( $105.45 USD )
Seat 6: IceHandGav ( $36.70 USD )
Seat 8: Adj McShady ( $48.25 USD )
Seat 10: YoUcAnNoTkNoW ( $100.00 USD )
IceHandGav posts small blind $0.50 USD.
Adj McShady posts big blind $1.00 USD.
Dealing down cards

Dealt to managetwa
YoUcAnNoTkNoW raises $3.00 USD
IseeYouNextTime folds
managetwa raises $11.00 USD
IceHandGav folds
Adj McShady folds
YoUcAnNoTkNoW calls $8.00 USD
Dealing Flop , ,

YoUcAnNoTkNoW bets $11.00 USD
managetwa calls $11.00 USD
Dealing Turn

YoUcAnNoTkNoW checks
managetwa checks
Dealing River

YoUcAnNoTkNoW checks

Wonderful

Weird line by him. But i dont think he will fold on the R because you are not repping much, because of the check behind on the turn. The thing is he does not rep much either. If you havent seen him donk out made hands before, then he is probably donking air here. So i would fire the turn, even though it might be a blank.

If I think he fires air here I am raising flop get it in but since I know he do it only with TT+ I am calling, also I could call with AQ or AK too since his bet is soo tiny and I want to rep the Ace now.And I am not betting the turn cuz prob his plan is to c/r it.

Wonderful

I think you played this alright but I wouldn't even mind just raising his donklead and getting it in on the flop. Reason for this is that his halfpot donkbet on the flop might be one of those bets 'to find out where he is'. When you raise there you're basically saying I have JJ+ and I'm getting it in.

I think when you raise flop you have a ton of fold equity. You don't have to raise that much.. just raise 3x his bet or so. If he calls you can take the freecard on the turn most likely planning to shove K or club river. This line also keeps a nice amount of money left.

The ace is definitely a nice card to bluff on. Also when you raise flop. When you raise flop but check behind on the turn you're basically saying you have AK/AQ and giving up. A hits on the river and bam you have a pair of aces.

In conclusion: so I would prefer if you took a more aggressive approach on the flop. Other than that I'm not entirely sure his range is what you say it is. 80% fold to 3bet seems big but over 450 hands it still doesn't say much. You need a pretty big sample until the fold to 3bet statistic becomes reliable (simply because it doesn't happen *that* much).

Last edited by Twisted 27 Apr 2009 at 15:09 CET

I agree with Twisted. If he donk leads strong and isn't too wild post I sometimes call but for the most part in a 3bet pot with overs + fd vs a smaller donk lead i'm re raising that all day unless deeper stacked.

as played on river I would bluff this. even if he makes a hero call with 99 u made the right play (judging by the fact he is a normal reg dont do this vs a psycho station obv) and there is always the meta game of u become harder to play vs etc.

also when u re raise flop u do get action sometimes from worse draws. worse fd's and some str8 draws

metagame!

QUOTE(James):

as played on river I would bluff this. even if he makes a hero call with 99 u made the right play (judging by the fact he is a normal reg dont do this vs a psycho station obv) and there is always the meta game of u become harder to play vs etc.

Thx.That was answer to exactly what I was asking.
I didn't raise flop cuz he is bet/shoveing it.He was snap folding to every 3b previous sessions so when he called pf with this positions his range is realy strong.He don't have worse draws in his range nor fd ot sd.Besiclt he got TT+ or JJ+ everytime here.

So I didn't know if his gonna fold his pair on river and I checked back he had QQ.
If I try to fold QQ shold I bet 3/4, pot or shove?

Last edited by ReDDcaFFe 30 Apr 2009 at 12:44 CET

Wonderful

yeah bet like 2/3 - 3/4 basically a stnd amount if u would hit the Ace and are value betting it
damn QQ lol what a nit....so make sure u note that

i really like how u checked back turn because not only do u prevent the possible c/r blowing u off ur hand (which even vs QQ has a lot of outs) but u use ur position well to keep ur range wide (something I will talk about more in the post flop articles I will get up). This is more important at higher stakes but its something I preach everyday to my students. SO when u check back u can def have a lot of hands and should really make ur river bluff seem more credible more of the time and on a WIDER range of river cards.

Last edited by James 13 May 2009 at 03:57 CET

metagame!

If you'd just bet the turn aswell u could bet the river, its pretty bad spot to bluff. Cause its so obv that your gonna bluff the A. And yes youcannotknow is a 16/13 slightly winning nit

I think the pot is too small and you're more likely to get called... Thats why I also prefer the flop raise strategy. I definetely agree with your thoughts on his range: TT(99)-QQ FOR SURE! So when he has 99-JJ he may fold to that raise or at least to show he won't play for stacks... After you justcalled the flop, you may only exploit his unwillingless to protect his hand and try to hit. Then - valubet it small, I think he'll call some 2/3 bet, because he sees you as an aggro guy and if he may reach the showdown for 50-60bb he'll do it, at least for me...

If you really want to exploit some fold equity, you have to shove this ace, but I won't do this if I dont have some recent dynamics that allow me to expect fold...

Last edited by KingBG 17 Jul 2009 at 20:48 CET